RaysUp Trade - Brandon Lowe & Shane Baz Deals w Rays, Pirates and Orioles

• RaysUp Off Season subtraction is actually a strong positive 
• More Christmas presents to come
• 3-Way Trade with Pittsburgh 
•  Brandon Lowe to Pirates – currently contract at $11.5 million contract
• Jake Mangum & Chandler Simpson – similar players – 
• Mason Montgomery – left handed starter and/or lethal closer like Aroldis Chapman
• Mike Burrows & Houston Astros
• Jacob Melton to the Rays – Kevin Kiermaier’ish outfield performance plus some hitting strength
• Anderson Brito – one of the talents when you can see the ceiling of being a number 1
• Rays building a strong rotation at A+ level 
• Shane Baz example - jumping from A to AA to Majors  - skipping AAA altogether
• 21-year old Brito will be coming up with Santiago Suarez. Trevor Harrison, Jose Urbina, and Andres Golan
• His fielder independent, , he had one of 2.91 and Santiago. Suarez, who's been consistently in the top 10, uh, prospects for the Rays is at 2.97
• Brito was an immediate improvement – to the Rays
• Rays got more from the Shane Baz deal than they did with the Chris Archer deal
• Future with prospects versus playoffs this year
• Lethal rotation with Drew Rasmussen. Ryan Pepiot. Shane McClanahan. Steven Mattson. Joe Boyle. 
• What would Rays do if Shane McClanahan goes down  – Rays could bring in  Ian Seymour, Joe Rock, &  Osvaldo Bido
• Yoendrys Gomez – relief/starting pitcher comes in from the White Sox
• Shane Baz’s potential to become an ace pitcher versus potential health issues
• Catcher of the future for the Rays – 
• Ketel Marte 2 tiers above Brandon Lowe
• Brandon Donovan
• Cardinals, Chaim Bloom's very familiar with Taylor Walls
• Jadher Areinamo
• 2nd base is solveable
• Cedric Mullins is sliding into that Manuel Margot role – stronger Right Field?
• Where does Josh Lowe wind up
• Shane Baz traded places
• Michael Forret – what will he add to pitching depth
• Catcher, Caden Bodine – significant hit tool
• Slater de Brun compared to Corbin Carroll & musical talent
• Austin Overn like Colton Ledbetter with 2X the speed
• Increasing the pressure in the Rays affiliate program
• Compensation pick –  essentially adding a first round pick for the Rays
• Shane Baz trade =  Zach Eflin & four other prospects
• How much have the Rays cleared up in salaries 
• Brandon Lowe - $11.5 million, Shane Baz - $3.5 million plus
• Ketel Marte is currently making $12.5 million
• Could Richie Palacios split time with Taylor Walls
• Jonny DeLuca, Taylor Walls & Josh Lowe are still on the roster today
• The 3-way trade & Ryan Pepiot’s arm with the D-backs
• Future show on the web of the Rays impact across several MLB Front Offices
• The Chicago White Rays – Duncan David, Curtis Mead, Ben Peoples, Alexander Alberto, Everson Pereira, Mike Vasil
• Mets move Jeff McNeil to Athletics’
• Will Mets pick up Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger
• Would like to see Eugenio Suarez to Marlins
• The Cardinals, Curt Flood, the Reserve Clause & the fight for Free Agency
• Curt Flood’s letter to Baseball Commissioner, Bowie Kun
• People are still talking $400 million for Kyle Tucker, they're still talking, 300 million for Bo Bichette.
• Ketel Marte to the Rays would be a great Christmas 
• Happy Festivus to the Rest of Us

Find Mat at @matgermain.bsky.social or reach Mark @  baseballbizondeck@gmail.com BaseballBiz on Deck, @ iHeart Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, & at www.baseballbizOnDeck.com 
Special Thanks to XTaKe-R-U-X for the music Rocking Forward

Transcript

RaysUp 329 BaseballBiz On Deck
 Tampa Bay Rays – Trades, 
Subtractions of Baz & Lowe & Additions of Top Talent

[00:00:00] Mark Corbett: Hey, Mat, it is Christmas time. I didn't think I was gonna talk to you till after Christmas, but it's like, it's like Santa has brought us a lot of gifts here on BaseballBiz on Deck that I didn't anticipate. 

[00:00:17] Mat Germain: Looks like he brought us a stalking full of goodies. Uh, but I don't think he's come up with the big biggest present of all yet.

[00:00:22] Yeah, I, I still think that one is coming. 

[00:00:26] Mark Corbett: Winter meetings. We expect a few things to come and they did. But then just the other day, as far as Rays fans, we saw a lot of mo maneuvering. I know. And the Rays aren't the only ones doing that, but my gosh, there was three way trades.

[00:00:39] There's, it was funny, I've been listening to some other folks' podcasts with the Rays. It's. Oh yeah. You know the thing with Brandon, Brandon Lowe, there's no way, there's no way they're gonna get rid of Brandon. And I thought, dude, yeah, and we got him for a song. But it's also the reason why it makes him so attractive, you know, for other teams as well.

[00:00:57] . And you look at, well, [00:01:00] I'm, I'm not going to roll up. I want you to tell us about the players, and I'll tell you what I think about each one of 'em,. 

[00:01:04] Mat Germain: So which trade do you wanna go through first? I'm imagining the Pittsburgh Pirates one, correct?

[00:01:08] Yeah. Yeah, so, so the Pittsburgh one was the more complicated of the bunch, but I think, there's a way to summarize it and I'll do that at the end. So, but I'll first, I'll, I'll break down what the trade actually was and I'm pretty sure the majority of people by now would've heard it. But, uh, the Ray sent Brandon Lowe, uh, Jake Mangum and, uh, Mason Montgomery to Pittsburgh.

[00:01:27] So those are the guys that are leaving town. So in that you have, Brandon Lowe has one year of control left. At $11.5 million. Now Pittsburgh can decide to extend 'em if they want. You know, they might have plans to do that, so we don't know. Now they control the player that's part of it. So they know they have 'em.

[00:01:46] For the one year though, Jake Mangum is controllable longer term than that, he's, he's. A free agent in 2031. So that's a what, what you would call a prototypical fourth outfielder. Mm-hmm. Uh, that can play all [00:02:00] three positions in the outfield extremely well. The Rays just had another. Jake Mangum on the team in Chandler Simpson.

[00:02:08] And having two of those exact same types doesn't really work very well for a team that wants to be competitive. But for Pittsburgh, it gives them that either at the top of the Eflineup or at the bottom of the Eflineup, he's not going to care where you put 'em and it'll be effective in either one. 'cause he has a high average, has speed covers all three out outfield positions.

[00:02:26] Well, and then they also get Mason Montgomery. Now I know the Rays. I don't wanna say they gave up on him being a starter. Because this potential is still there. But I think what they wanted to do is give him MLB time to learn how to trust his stuff. And they've done that to a degree, but he still had very high walk rates.

[00:02:45] So if Pittsburgh can get him matured enough to the point where he is more zoned in with his velocity from the left side. That to me is the longer piece, the longer term piece that allowed the trade to go through, [00:03:00] because in Mike Burrows, they're giving up a guy that would've been, you know, a mid rotation starter, uh, for, for five to six years, and that, that's extremely high value.

[00:03:10] But if you look at it from their perspective of gaining Mason Montgomery and potentially having a left-handed starter or. He has the makings of a very, , lethal closer from the left side as well. 'cause he can touch, , a hundred miles an hour or better. So, so from the left side, that's extremely rare.

[00:03:28] And you're talking, you know, almost get reaching the Aroldis Chapman, you know, zone. Yeah. Uh, if he pushes it enough down the road, so, so like there's a lot of value there to be had from Pittsburgh. So I think people are encouraged by that. Like fans, MLB, everybody seems to be saying finally we're seeing, you know, them add more pieces than they're taking away.

[00:03:49] So they gave up one player who wasn't even part of the team yet and they've given some life to the Eflineup and some length to it and depth that that can surround some of their younger [00:04:00] players. . And make , their Eflineup a little bit harder to navigate. And I think they've done that effectively. So in in Houston, what they get is that top ceiEfling.

[00:04:08] Uh, that is available right now, like 4 20, 26. They get that guy that they can push into the rotation who will probably replace Fran Val Valdez. I don't think he's going back there. Um, so Mike Burrows slides right, right into their three hole. Uh, they can, uh, they can control him for six, seven years. And, and so they really.

[00:04:31] Um, got the most value when it comes to 2026, uh, in my opinion, because they'll actually, you know, benefit from having, if you're looking at. The cost of starting pitching right now in MLB, it's pretty significant and it's to the point where it's almost obscene in a lot of ways. So, you know, all the way around, you know, the, you kind of have to look at what the teams were aiming to get.

[00:04:57] So the Astros got exactly what they were [00:05:00] looking for in this deal. For the Rays, what they get is Jacob Melton. You know how some guys just show up in MLB and everybody expects them to perform to the highest degree right away. He wasn't that guy and that's the only reason he's available to the Rays because his talent is, is significant.

[00:05:18] He, he's the kind of guy that the Rays, you know. You're talking about a Kevin Meyer ish type of defensive value in center field. You're, you're talking about a, a guy that may have a better hit tool down the road than KK ever had, and certainly more power than KK ever had overall, so, so. It, it depends.

[00:05:40] He's like on the fringe guy. He could go either way. He could become another fourth outfielder or he could become a dominant center fielder that's in in some all star games and win some gold gloves. So he has some risk associated with them. But where you're in a position of the ray and you're looking at.

[00:05:56] Opening the stadium, you know, down the road [00:06:00] with your best version of your team, Jacob Melton could very well be one of those really key pieces. But the PS the Stan for the Rays, or the guy that has the highest ceiEfling in this entire deal, in my opinion, is the pitcher that they got, which is a, he's an undersized guy right now, but he's one of those talents that you really,

[00:06:20] you get excited about because you can see the ceiEfling being that of a number two or a number one, so, you know, down the road either or because the stuff just has so much bite to it. And, and really, uh, you know, it'll come down to health development, how much he can develop the, the secondary pieces that he has in his arsenal.

[00:06:41] So from what I've heard. Most people talk about from baseball America, from MLB pipeEfline, from people that watch the game a lot. He is the, the player that has the high ceiEfling, but also with that carries the most risk because of his size and that he's only an a plus. But Mark, the rotation they're [00:07:00] building in a plus is also very interesting for the Rays and, and just as a prospect's guy like the.

[00:07:07] You know, you try not to put too much value, but I remember thinking exact same thing when Shane Baz and the group that he was with were in high A, and it didn't take very long from that point onwards for him to arrive. I think Shane Baz went to double A the next year. Then boom, he was an MLB, , he never even went to aaa.

[00:07:26] So just to give you an example of, , we say Anderson Brito is only in, uh, a plus, but that's not very far from reaching the majors when, when you're in a Rays system that, , on occasion can, can skip a few steps along the way. Uh, but I posted it earlier and I'm just gonna dig it out here. The rotation that he's gonna be a part of, he's 21 years old.

[00:07:47] , He's gonna be with Santiago Suarez. Trevor Harrison, Jose Urbana, and Andres Golan and all of them had a, , fip, that's a fielder independent, , basically ERA and of [00:08:00] under 3 7 5. So I think the, the, he had one of 2.91 and Santiago. Suarez, who's been consistently in the top 10, uh, prospects for the Rays is at 2.97.

[00:08:13] So you could say he's as. Smidgen better so far than Santiago Suarez. Now, when you're looking at that in the trade value from a Rays' prospects group perspective, uh, you know.

[00:08:27] That's how I like to measure things because you're trying to get measuring sticks that make sense? Uh, so I think the Rays ultimately got a guy that is two years away from being in a rotation and they got a guy that they can plug into their outfield and improve it right away. So that's where they got their immediate improvement from last year to this year.

[00:08:49] Mark Corbett: Well, let me ask you a couple questions here. One. Hmm. You're talking about a guy who can be coming up in, you know, maybe later this year or next to be part of our rotation, [00:09:00] but Shane Bo was part of our rotation right now. Mm-hmm. And to see him go away and you're talking about our outfield. Well, I mean, we, we were doing pretty well with the outfield.

[00:09:10] I mean, even. Look at, uh, Jake Mangum, who I just, I loved watching, and as you pointed out though, Chandler Simpson is also a great player there. And did we really need both of them? So what, what else are we looking for there? I, I have some questions about, you know, Shane being able to, , I, I think he, I think they're getting a great deal because.

[00:09:32] He's still, he's, what can I say? There's still a lot of left on what before. He's actually a free agent, I believe, on this. And that is, is very attractive to somebody else who wants him. And it's also a reason, I think, to Rays, look at getting rid of somebody before they're gonna go to free agency. 

[00:09:51] Mat Germain: Right?

[00:09:52] So Shane Baz's trade was completely different in terms of the makeup of it , and the Rays honestly. They got [00:10:00] more from, , the Shane Baz deal from the Orioles than they got from the Chris Archer deal. 

[00:10:05] Mark Corbett: Yeah. 

[00:10:06] Mat Germain: So just to put in perspective, think back to that trade and how everybody said that's crazy.

[00:10:12] Mark Corbett: Yep, yep, yep. Well, this 

[00:10:13] Mat Germain: one is crazier. This one is Mark. I was shocked when this one fell because first of all, because they're in the singing division, right? This is the kind of price that the Astros last year, when the Rays offered up Shane Baz, they balked at it and they said, no, no, no, no, no. We can't do that.

[00:10:30] We can't go there. And that's how the other trade with the Astros included. And Pittsburgh ended up coming into play because they had already done all the scouting at that point in mid-season to do it. But the, the, the true. I, I understand prospects can be off-putting to a lot of people, and a lot of times they don't pan out.

[00:10:49] But what I like, I mean, 

[00:10:50] Mark Corbett: let me stop you for a second, Matt, because Yeah, that's, that's the thing. I think a lot of us are sitting here thinking, oh, well, we didn't get to playoffs last year, this past year, and now we're looking [00:11:00] at prospects. We're looking for a more future met. We're looking for, I, I want 'em now.

[00:11:05] I want a team now. 

[00:11:07] Mat Germain: I get it and you're gonna get it now, so, so let me paint that picture first. Okay. So the Rays rotation right now. Okay. As it stands and, and this is the now today, Drew Rasmussen. Ryan Pepiot. Shane McClanahan. Steven Mattson. Joe Boyle.. That's a lethal rotation. So you've given up Shane Baz.

[00:11:25] You're not knee shorter for the wear, you're, you're still in an outstanding spot. Now, let's say Shane McClanahan goes down, a lot of people are predicting that that may or may not happen, or that he may not have the length to last a full season might need spells off. Then you're talking about bringing in Ian Seymour more, uh, Joe Rock, and they also brought in Osvaldo Bido, which is an awesome, you know, kind of swing guy.

[00:11:48] Then you have a reliever slash starting pitcher that they brought in from the White Sox. In, uh, Yoendrys Gomez, who's actually able to come in and step in when he, he's needed. [00:12:00] But not only that, mark, I don't think they're done. I think they're still looking at Zach Effin. They're still looking at Zach Letell guys.

[00:12:07] They know extremely well. They don't need them to pitch 200 innings. They need them to mitigate the risk associated with Shane McClanahan, so, so all of that stuff that they brought in, all those prospects are gravy. That's why it works, because they have a plan to replace the production they would've received from Shane Baz.

[00:12:27] Now there is a chance Shane b takes another step forward and becomes the ace that a lot of us envisioned he would become eventually, right? The, the potential and the arm and the stuff are all there. It's just the health risk associated with him within the next two to three years. The way he pitches his body type, et cetera, says that there will be another major injury.

[00:12:49] So, you know, when you're looking at the Rays format of getting the maximum value for players, they can't risk that If they want to compete in the a lease, they have to [00:13:00] turn that into there. There's a picture they got in this deal, mark, that'll be here next year. That's how close he is to major league baseball.

[00:13:09] So, so you're talking about a one year hop and skip, and then boom, you have him replaced with a healthier arm. Now why wouldn't you take that risk? So just right there, there's also a catcher in this deal that they believe might be the catcher of the future they've been looking for. That is significant.

[00:13:25] So now he's going to be competing, competing with Nathan Flolan to try to get that role resolved for the Rays for the first time in, in. Franchise history, to be honest, which is kind of ridiculous, but, but it's one of those, yeah, it's one of those things you have to, you do have to have a little bit of a.

[00:13:43] A whole proof of concept outlook on it. 

[00:13:47] Mark Corbett: I, I lo I love your approach, dude, because you do, I mean, you can see deeper on this and good Lord, you and I have talked time and again about the whole catcher position. It's like the race, as far as I can remember, have not [00:14:00] really been able to cultivate a catcher in the farm system.

[00:14:03] And it's like, well, we're gonna give up on that. We're gonna let the rest of MLB cultivate one and we'll, we'll just trade for 'em. But. Mean, we look over the last few years and you look at Mejia, you look at Danny Jansen and you look at a lot of these guys, Hey, you know they were okay. You know Ben Ro fit, they're okay, but nothing to where you felt stellar.

[00:14:24] I mean, the best thing I felt like we had to catcher a while back was Travis au. And I thought he was exceptional. He was exceptional on offense as well as defense, and part of that came from the battery of him and Charlie Morton, just having a, a synchronicity right there as well. But he's continued to go on.

[00:14:43] I guess a lot of us as fans just say, well, I want a team right now that's gonna be over 500 and it's gonna be in the playoffs next year. And because of all this change, there's a lot of unknowns For some of us who don't know who, who this, who some of these new [00:15:00] guys are, then, then we gotta look at second base and we say, oh.

[00:15:04] Well, there's, there's Mr. 30 home runs a year. Right now he's, he's walking off of the, of, uh, the turf. He's gonna be on grass most of the year. Uh, I'm, I'm happy for Brandon for that alone because we, we even, and I have talked to the past to figure that some of his injuries in the past came from being on that damn turf instead of grass.

[00:15:22] So, anyway. 

[00:15:25] Mat Germain: I still think, like I said, mark, I don't think they're done. I think they're going after Kateel Marte or Brandon Donovan. Oh 

[00:15:31] Mark Corbett: gosh. 

[00:15:31] Mat Germain: When you look at those two players, right, that would not only do, did you just bring in a hoard of prospects, so you've got 10 more prospects you've added to the. The team, which was already a solid system to begin with.

[00:15:45] But now if you bring in Ketel Marte, you've improved the second base decision. Uh, position. Twofold. Like to me, Ketel Marte is like two tiers above what Brandon Lowe is, and I knowRaysfans love Brandon Lowe. [00:16:00] His average has never been stellar. His OBS On Base Percentage base percentage has never been stellar. He's always been susceptible to being struck out on pitches outside.

[00:16:08] It's just the way that he operated. Everybody knew that that was part of the risk of including him. He was never a prototypical two hole hitter, whereas Ketel Marte. Is exactly that. If you put him in front of Junior Caminero, holy cow, mark the AL East will hate that setup for, for their pitching.

[00:16:27] Especially if Chandler Simpson's at the top of leading off and, and uh, setting the table for them. So, so what I'm saying , is the off season isn't over. If you've got Chaim Bloom in, in St. Louis, you know. The Rays are keeping good track, and in terms of makeup, there's no better fit with the Rays than Brandon Donovan.

[00:16:46] He's the kind of guy that will wear the team first badge with honor and will actually be on the field working his tail off every single game. He's not the same power kind of bat as. I [00:17:00] could tell Marte would be, but that's why I think a three-way trade between the Cardinals, the, uh, Diamondbacks and the Rays makes a lot of sense because the, the D-backs want to compete now.

[00:17:10] They want to just change the makeup of their, their. You know their team a little bit, uh, from what we hear anyway, these, this is all rumor based. So, so if you're sliding in, let's say, uh, Brandon Donovan, and you're able to get a starting pitcher along with the deal and you get the trade Ketel Marte and change the makeup of your room, uh, maybe slide in another prospect and the deal or something like that, I think that could work out.

[00:17:35] And the way the Cardinals are going right now, they'll be happy to get, uh, uh. You know, a whole load of prospects. Uh, maybe you include Taylor Walls, who can be stellar defensively for all their young pitching. Uh, something like that seems to make a lot of sense. Chaim Bloom's very familiar with Taylor Walls.

[00:17:51] He knows what he's all about. So, I don't know. I, all I'm saying is with all these deals. The, the Rays have, , brought in a lot of talent [00:18:00] that now they get to work with to resolve. Now, even if they don't bring somebody new in, other than what they already have aboard last year, they made that, that trade for, uh, for one of the brewers prospects, which ends up being, you know, one of the, the talents that should be theoretically in aaa.

[00:18:18] But when you're talking about a talent that could skip a level, he's one of those guys, you know. Um, and who's that again? That's, uh, Jadher Areinamo is what 

[00:18:28] his 

[00:18:29] Mark Corbett: name. Well, that's what I, I, I knew I wasn't gonna say that name. 

[00:18:33] Mat Germain: Jadher Areinamo. I don't know if that's how you say it. I honestly Good. It's probably a little bit more Latin tone than what I'm giving it, but, but he played in AA last year and he had a, you know, 126 RWRC plus.

[00:18:46] He's double digits. Home runs, double dig digits, steals, strikes out less than 12% of the time. Uh, so his bat and his approach at the plate are very advanced. He's got speed, he's got some power, and he can roll all the way through the [00:19:00] infield, uh, in terms of second base shortstop and third base. But more than that, they brought in the AAA MVP, Raynel Delgado, which I mentioned last week and the week before.

[00:19:11] And he would be able to slide in right away. Right. And they could be that they have bigger plans for him than we know, or that they want to include him in a trade. I don't know. But, but the point is that second base is solvable. Very easily, whether you slide John, Jonathan, Aranda to second base from first, which I know a lot of people don't like, or you use an internal piece like Taylor Walls or Carson Williams or somebody else, they, they have the means to do that.

[00:19:37] And if it means getting, uh, center field and a frontEfline starter as part of a deal. That makes a lot of sense in my opinion. Uh, and the Rays had to, to change up the refield makeup. What I like about this deal also, mark, is it points to if they gave up all this talent to get Jacob Melton. Okay. So the Rays obviously believe in this guy quite a bit, [00:20:00] right?

[00:20:00] Mark Corbett: Right. 

[00:20:01] Mat Germain: To me what that means is that he's getting center field and it means Cedric MulEflins is sliding into that Manuel Margot role that I mentioned before, which is perfect for him. So he slides over to right field instead of center, which keeps his older aging legs a little bit fresher, but still improves right field defense significantly for all theRayspitching above what Josh Lowe offered.

[00:20:24] So now the question is, where does Josh Lowe wind up? 

[00:20:29] Mark Corbett: Yeah, I see. Uh, I don't know where, but I don't see him with the race. I don't see him with theRaysby, by the end of the season. And, uh, maybe before the first year, I don't know where, where you put Josh. Uh, he, he just wasn't able to have the consistently good game.

[00:20:45] He's had some moments, you know, there was times in the past you really could be cheering him on and still cheering him on, but. It's not there. It's, it's, it's time for somebody else. So yeah, I, I see him gone. I don't [00:21:00] know who's gonna pick him up and I don't know what would be the, the, uh, methodology or rather what would be the appeal to other teams?

[00:21:05] 'cause he has seemed like he's been on a bit of a slide. 

[00:21:09] Mat Germain: Absolutely. So I just want to touch on the other pieces the Rays got for Shane Baz because I think, okay, you're giving up that one arm which could fall off in the next two or three years, right? You're giving up that frontEfline potential and what they got back was Michael Forret, who'd be the first one to arrive or Austin Overn.

[00:21:27] So Michael Forret , is a double a pitcher. Um, he'll be able to slide right in probably. A number four or number five starter is what you're looking at. To be honest, he's not gonna be a frontEfline guy like the, the other guy that they got in the other trade, but, but he's still an intriguing guy in terms of what he will be able to provide, um, the Rays in terms of, you know, starting pitching depth.

[00:21:50] So. After that, you're looking at the, uh, hang on one second. I lost my place here. I just wanna make sure I cover every single one of these [00:22:00] guys. Uh, you, you've got Caden Bodine, which is the catcher that I mentioned before. Right? He's gonna be a little further away. He's got a significant, , hit tool, uh, above what catchers his age normally have.

[00:22:13] So, so that's where the, the package of. The defensive abilities being average to above average as a catcher, but the HIT tool being a plus is something the Rays have never had in their system ever. I think Nathan Fluellen is becoming that a little bit, still has a little bit more to prove, but Caden Bodine is one of those guys that really, you know.

[00:22:37] I think everybody's raving right now about Kyle Teal in, with the Chicago White Sox. Okay. Caden Bodine could be exactly that kind of style. , And I have a really good feeEfling about what he would be able to become with the race. Slater de Brun is a outfielder who's five ten one ninety.

[00:22:54] A lot of people, and , I hate to put com comparisons with young guys because this guy's 18. He's still really [00:23:00] far away from, from the majors, but people are comparing him to Corbin Carroll , and what he brings to the table in terms of makeup, speed, power, the whole package. He's got a really level head on his shoulders, plays the game hard.

[00:23:12] , He writes music and he actually is a performer as well. So he is got some, uh. He is got some pizazz and some personality to go with it as well. So he's not just a one trick pony, uh, which is always fun. , You're bringing some life , into the team as well. But Austin Noven is, is, you know, if you would've looked at all, we've talked about, , the guys with speed in the Rays system, right?

[00:23:35] And we think, wow, they've got one of the fastest systems in MLB. Well, if he had played with the Rays system last year, he would be the. Speediest guy of them all. Wow. He had 64 steals, so he would've ended up at the top of the list above Homer Bush, Jr. Above whatever. So, you know, you're talking about Homer Bush Jr.

[00:23:53] And AAA, then you've got Austin Overn, aa, you've got two guys that can steal 60 plus on [00:24:00] top of having and on top of having Chandler Simpson on the team. So again, the, the, the floor with Austin Overn is very high because you're looking at him already as . He should be a very solid fourth outfielder or a guy off the bench that can help your team out.

[00:24:16] The strikeout percentages are still a little bit of an issue and the hit tool still has to come through so. Essentially, if you're, if you're very familiar with the Rays system, and some listeners might be, Colton Ledbetter is, is the guy that I would compare him to, but with double the speed essentially.

[00:24:32] So the same kind of power, the same kind of hit tool, but more speed. So again, it, it, it hires his floor, or sorry, it makes him having a higher floor than Colton and it puts pressure on Colton to perform as well. So the, that's the other angle that we don't talk about enough. All of these guys that I mentioned coming in increase the pressure on the prospects already in the Raysd system to say, just for playing time within the affiliate that [00:25:00] you're a part of, you're gonna have to show up and play hard, or else you're gonna get pushed to the side or dealt or you know, something else is gonna happen.

[00:25:08] So this is, uh, com competition breeds the best out of, uh, these teams. And, and the one thing that I didn't mention on top of it is that they have the comp compensation pick, which is gonna be around 33rd. Overall, there's still some und uh, some things that can change because of the signings and, and what'll take place.

[00:25:28] But essentially they're adding a first round pick. Now, a lot of that is because there was penalties for a lot of teams that ended up having, um. Uh, going over the luxury tax. Okay, so they dropped back 10 spots. So normally that pick would've been somewhere around 39, 40. But because of all those teams being penalized, they jump ahead by, you know, all those draft picks.

[00:25:50] So, as an example of somebody that was selected in that spot, Zach Eflin was selected in that spot. So in theory, you could say the Rays [00:26:00] traded. Shane Baz for Zach Eflin and a package of four other prospects, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's concept in your mind to kind of piece it out, including one that could be a franchise catcher, including one that could be a cor Corbin Carroll type, including, you know, you keep adding more to that ice cream, you've got enough toppings to make it a very, you know, yeah.

[00:26:23] You got access. If 

[00:26:24] Mark Corbett: you got extra sprinkles for sure, there, Mat. I'll tell you what, buddy. No, you're making it sound a whole lot more attractive than when I first started out this conversation with you. I mean, I, I knew there was potential there, but you, you've done a great job delineating, you know, what the value is of those players instead of just, , unknown names.

[00:26:41] Zach Eflin, we know and we know what he can do, but the others and definitely the necessity for a good catcher. Uh, I, I'm, I am really curious to see what else. They do. My gosh, the whole idea of Ketel Marte. Oh. Or Donovan. Either one of those people. Let's, let's go back 

[00:26:58] Mat Germain: to, let's go back to that [00:27:00] one now you just said, so how much money did they clear up by making these moves?

[00:27:05] Right, so Brandon Lowe made 11 point or was, is going to make 11.5 million Shane Baz is gonna make just over three and a half. So right there you've cleared the money that would be paid to Ketel Marte. 'cause Ketel Marte is only making 12.5. So not only could you pay Kateel, Marte, you still have money left over to go and sign Zach FEflin or Zach Ketel.

[00:27:26] So I'm telEfling you, mark, I think those are the two next pieces to fall. , Because I don't think the Rays want to bow out of 2026 altogether. I think they're realistic about their chances, but they'll want to hang around and, and kind of see how things can shake out. , And the trick is with Ketel Marte is it's rare that you get the opportunity.

[00:27:46] To bid on the player that is on a team friendly deal for five more years and can anchor your Eflineup, right? So it's basically as if the Blue Jays decided they wanted to trade Bo [00:28:00] Bichette, two years ago and, and he was controlled for five years instead of three more, right? Like, right, something like that.

[00:28:05] It, it's essentially what the Rays will be getting in that deal. So it's gonna be costly, it's not gonna be cheap, but I still think it'd be, it'll be worthwhile if they can make it happen. 

[00:28:16] Mark Corbett: Man. Oh man. You know, I'm really hoping that's what we see because. There are a lot of Rays fans. I mean, you don't, you're not, the Yankees expect to be winning the World Series every year, but you certainly expect to be in the playoffs and that just kind of hurts.

[00:28:29] Uh, the last couple, you know, years we expected more, but. I think that there's promise. I think the new owner's gonna make a difference. They've left key elements in as far as who's gonna be making decisions. So , from your mouth to 's ear, we, we hope that those come into play. 'cause I, I just, I absolutely love the idea of seeing, Ketel Marte out there, man.

[00:28:53] I mean, see, so we, we bring who are, who are the biggie we'd be bringing in it? We're talking about Ketel Marte, just for GR giggles. Mm-hmm. [00:29:00] We've got, uh, Cedric Mullins. So that's the other biggie right now. And say again, please. 

[00:29:06] Mat Germain: Jacob Melton. Which would also improve the outfield 

[00:29:09] Mark Corbett: That's right. And then we've uh, we still, and we got plenty of people that we already have too.

[00:29:14] I'm not sure where we're gonna set Rich 

[00:29:16] Mat Germain: Jacob. Ryan Vilade. Ryan Vilade, sorry. Yep. So those are two guys that they, what they did is Ryan Olo. They would be a utility type like Taylor Walls, but with power and an actual bat. , And then you have, , Jake Fraley, who is an improvement on Josh Lowe from the left side, and also helps replace Brandon Lowe's left-handed bat in the Eflineup, assuming they do land Ketel Marte.

[00:29:39] Mark Corbett: So we still have Junior. Now, Richie, where are we gonna put Richie Palacios. 

[00:29:45] Mat Germain: That would be a good backup plan for second base, in my opinion. Or a, a partner with Right now, let's say right now they don't bring anybody new in. Yeah. Richie Palacios could split time with Taylor Walls at second base. So you know, you have him playing [00:30:00] Richie's one of those odd types.

[00:30:01] He's left-handed bat, but he's actually does, has opposite splits so. It would, it would be him against lefties and Taylor was against righties, which Ray's probably prefer, uh, but I think he has the lockdown. It, it's hard to tell right now, mark, because there's still ambiguity with the outfielders. They keep on, they still have Jonny DeLuca, they still have Josh Lowe.

[00:30:23] They still have, you know, all these pieces that we don't know how things are gonna shake out. So to, to guess that they would use a certain player a certain way. It's fallacy right now. But yeah, it's fun. It's fun that they're working hard to do it, and , you're seeing that, , that ball of wax being reformed into something different.

[00:30:44] So it's fun to see. 

[00:30:46] Mark Corbett: Do you wanna walk us through, I think you put, uh, about an hour or so ago what you thought the Rays lineup would look like or what you would hope it to be. I know you posted earlier, let's see. Uh, [00:31:00] see. One thing you were talking about to acquire the group of prospects for the Rays. About what we would have to trade and 

[00:31:09] Mat Germain: Oh, yeah.

[00:31:11] The, you mean the, the three way trade? 

[00:31:13] Mark Corbett: Yeah. Yeah. 

[00:31:14] Mat Germain: Yeah. So, you know, it's always hard to put certain names out there, but I, I think I've told you before during the season that I think the Rays recognize that they forced Ryan Pepe to overuse his slider. So I think they know his arm's gonna fall off at some point.

[00:31:29] Yeah. And so they, they've got him on the trade market, um, but he's exactly the type of pitcher that would anchor, um, the DBAs rotation well, for this year coming up. Um, so I think the, the Rays would be able to offer Ryan. Pepe, and this is why I'm saying if you're the DBAs and you sit back, you get Ryan Pepe and you get Brandon Donovan in the same deal for Ketel Marte, that is something you can show your fans and say, okay, we've solidified the rotation.

[00:31:56] We still have a very, very solid second baseman [00:32:00] who can move around if needed because they've got a pro, a couple of prospects that are almost ready to come up and take that second base position. Anyway, so what they're able to do with Brandon Donovan is move 'em around once those guys arrive, which is why Brendan Donovan is such a perfect fit for this three way trade to happen.

[00:32:18] So Ryan Peppi would go there now, there would be prospects involved that would go to the St. Louis cards, and that's where I get a lot of pushback 'cause I'm like, okay. You give them Taylor Walls, Jonny DeLuca. 'cause they're looking for a right-handed bad L fielder. They've been telEfling everybody that and I don't think Jonny DeLuca has shown his best potential yet.

[00:32:37] I still think there's more in the tank for him yet an unfortunate injury last year. But before the injury he was doing excellent and he showed some glimpses of that after the fact as well. So I think they would have some interest in, in Jonny DeLuca, Taylor Walls helps all their pitching out so. For some, somebody that's trying to do a rebuild, that's really important that, that you have [00:33:00] a team behind them that isn't going to let the pitchers down and let them get hard on themselves.

[00:33:05] So I think, you know, it's hard to say whether or not they would use them in as a utility role if they would use them as a solid second baseman. I don't know, , but I think he would still be, uh, an intriguing piece for them to use while they're developing their pitchers. And then some prospects, and I'm talking, , two to three prospects going along with it.

[00:33:26] So when you're looking from the Rays perspective, you're sending Ryan Pepiot, Taylor Walsh, Jonny DeLuca, which Jonny DeLuca you don't have any plans for right now anyway. 

[00:33:34] Mark Corbett: Right. 

[00:33:34] Mat Germain: And then you, a couple of prospects, let's say two prospects, so. Who those prospects are. I have no idea. And the talent would be predicated on which one, you know, but I think for a, a player of ca, uh, Ketel Marte caliber as one of the top 10 to 12 to 15 bats in the league that you control affordably for the next five to 10 years, who can help you open a new stadium as the second [00:34:00] baseman, , personality issues aside.

[00:34:04] You know, I think it's, it's one of those gambles that a team like to Rays some teams can overlook, can, can say, you know what, I don't want to deal with the, the, those problems. Like let's say you're the Dodgers or you're the Yankees because you can afford to go out. And get the nicest, you know, cheery. Oh gosh, golly gee guys.

[00:34:22] And, and pay them whatever you want. 

[00:34:24] Mark Corbett: Yeah. 

[00:34:24] Mat Germain: But, but if you're the Rays and you have the opportunity to jump on a guy you can afford for this block of time and build around along with Junior Caminero, oh man. Mm-hmm. Like, it's really hard to pass that opportunity up. So, yeah, what do you do? Like, just as an example, mark, you could sign Bo Bichette right now to play second base or Alex Bregman and pay them 150 to 200 to 300 million depending on who you, you know, listen to.

[00:34:50] Or you can bring in Ketel Marte and pay them. Pay him less than half of that. 

[00:34:55] Mark Corbett: Yeah. 

[00:34:56] Mat Germain: You know what, what makes the most sense? If you're the race, you [00:35:00] definitely pony up whatever they're asking and you go get that player. That's what I would do. 

[00:35:06] Mark Corbett: Well, the Rays have always been smart with their money and, you know, finding talent and finding a, a good combination trading players, pardon me, trading players when they're coming maybe at their peak or at their downslide, and when they still got enough, uh, control to do something with it.

[00:35:24] So I, I think what you're painting here today, we can definitely see that. And, you know, on another show, what I want to do is look at. The web of the Rays in the front offices, you know, whether Chaim Bloom, whether it's Glick with the Astros, et cetera. Even the new what, , manager for the Orioles.

[00:35:43] He, he played for the Rays and he was part of the front office. You know, well maybe we'll do a show on just some of that someday. But it's, uh, it's interesting 'cause those conversations about these players can probably be held in a more collegiate, uh, conversation than, than coming up, [00:36:00] knocking on the door, talking to a manager or somebody else you've never met before.

[00:36:04] Mat Germain: And remember the, um, the assistant GM that, that got tired of waiting for a higher position with the Rays and left? Yeah. Uh, Carlos Rodriguez, he's the one that brought in all that international talent for years and years and years. Uh, he's been with, he was with the Rays for 15 years. He ended up signing with the, what I call now, the Chicago White Rays.

[00:36:23] White Rays the white Rays because they've, they've brought in so many. Mark, it's unbelievable how many x-rays that they've brought in. Uh, so, so they have Duncan David, they have, uh, Curtis Mead, uh, they just did it, made the trade with, uh, with the Rays recently. Hang on, I'll bring it up just to read through it 'cause it's Loweghable Ben Peoples.

[00:36:45] Is there. Uh, Alexander Al Alberto is a guy that they plucked off the Rays. They brought in Everson Pereira. They have, uh, Mike Vasil is a guy that they plucked off the Rays. Brandon Eisert is another guy they got from [00:37:00] the race. Um, anyways. There's just a plethora of Ray centric players that they've brought in and, and now they have the GM that probably sold them all to them, which is Carlos Rodriguez.

[00:37:12] I think that's a stellar move by Chris Getz. Uh, I, you know, you can't think of a guy that knows more about what the Rays did, uh, for their success over the last 15 years than Carlos, Carlos Rodriguez. They'll probably tap him for way more than just international talents and scouting. They're gonna be asking him a whole bunch of questions about how operations were made, what their focuses were, y yada, yada.

[00:37:37] Um, so I think there's great things on the horizon for the White Sox and that recent move they just made for that Japanese player is excellent. Yes, that's exactly the kind of move that they should be making. So there's a lot of intelligence going on with the White Sox right now, and they should be ecstatic with the.

[00:37:56] The, the base that they've given themselves to work [00:38:00] from. Uh, because, you know, if you're a White Sox fan too, for too long, you've been looking at the north side getting all those players, and now you get to rub it in their faces a little bit that you brought in this Japanese guy and they're losing Kyle Tucker and they're, you know, they can jab each other a little bit.

[00:38:16] But, uh, yeah. How, how much? Okay. Go 

[00:38:19] Mark Corbett: ahead. No, no. I, I was just gonna agree with you. , It's nice to see some traction, you know, \, from the White Sox, because as a fan it has to be, it's so much pain. I know. Uh, the, the podcast. Good Guys talk back. Which is based on the good guys wear Black with, uh, you know, which White Sox did years ago.

[00:38:38] And it, it's hard. I've listened to their podcast sometimes this past year and I could tell it is hard for them to have that show. But after that we're gonna see about maybe getting them on. We're talking about getting, uh, Nathan Andrews on from Full Count Chaos. Talk about the Orioles. Uh, it'll be fun hearing what some of the, well have, what they expect with the future of this as well.

[00:38:59] But my [00:39:00] gosh, go ahead. I interrupted you. I'm sorry. 

[00:39:02] Mat Germain: No, that's all good. I was just gonna mention too, we talked last week or the week before about the Mets and uh, what they were gonna do with Jeff McNeil. Yep. And, uh, the athletics picked him up. So I think the next big piece, the fall will be, uh, an L fielder going to the Mets.

[00:39:17] Now that they've moved Jeff McNeil's contract, I think that they're, they'll be ready to take in either Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. , And then a lot more dominoes will fall after. Well, once that takes. Takes place. , But it's good to see, , some morphing of teams. Yeah. You saw Wilson Contreras go to the Red Sox.

[00:39:36] I think that'll make Tristan Casas, uh, available in trade potentially. Uh, it also points to the, the Cardinals finally deciding which road of the track they're going on. It seems like they should be pretty much selEfling now. More so than, than trying to convince their fans. They're still competitive. 

[00:39:55] Mark Corbett: Yeah.

[00:39:55] Mat Germain: So, 

[00:39:56] Mark Corbett: yeah. 

[00:39:57] Mat Germain: So it's, you know, there's teams that are [00:40:00] going one way. There's teams that are going another way. So, uh, I, I enjoy that. I enjoy that shift. I'll throw another signing out there. I would like to see is, uh, Eugenio Suarez. Um, going over to the Marlins, I, I think that would be a solid fit, or going to Pittsburgh along with Brandon Lowe to finish off what they started, because I think both those teams could use the power that he has.

[00:40:23] Um, and it doesn't seem like the Mar uh, Mariners want to bring him in for what he's asking, so, 

[00:40:28] Mark Corbett: yeah. Oh my. It's just exciting time, man. The hot stove is still cooking. You know, Christmas is upon us here in a couple of days. We're recording this on, uh, December 22nd here on Monday. Just, you know, man, I said I already had Christmas plans, but we couldn't, we could not, not talk about this.

[00:40:47] It was just too exciting. What's been happening. Um, you know, you brought up the Cardinals there at the end and. It's funny, I think about them this time of year when I think about them. I'm also thinking about Curt Flood [00:41:00] and how after years and years and years of being a player for that team, you know, the reserve cLowese and then suddenly.

[00:41:09] They didn't want him anymore. They wanted to move him somewhere else. And this is a man, I mean, you know, think about this as players a lot. Anyway, they build a place in the community. He actually had a photography studio as well. Uh, there he had, he ran, there's a whole, there's a tragic life around Curt.

[00:41:24] But he was committed to seeing change, not just for himself. And uh, as far as being able to make decisions about where he would play. And he was quite. I think he was quite aware that this fight would not end with him. It was going to take some time later to the fight for free agency to be able to pick where a player would pay play.

[00:41:48] Because what it was, the reserve cLoweses, basically they reserved you each year to play the, the following year for, for that team or nowhere else you could really couldn't go anywhere else. And, uh, let's see this, so I [00:42:00] talk about it this time of year because one of the things is Matt, is that, um, Marvin Miller.

[00:42:07] Curt Flood working together, trying to figure out what can they do well. Curt Flood said, well, I'm gonna send a letter to the commissioner. So on December 24th, and that's all the way back in when 1969, he sent the following letter to Bowie Kuhn, commissioner Baseball. I'll read it here for you. Dear Mr. Kon, after 12 years in the Major Leagues, I do not feel that I am a piece of property to be bought and sold irrespective of my wishes.

[00:42:36] I believe that any system which produces that result violates my basic rights as a citizen and is inconsistent with the laws of the United States and of the several states. It is my desire to play baseball in 1979 capable of playing. I have received a contract offer from the Philadelphia Club, but I believe I have the right to consider offers from other [00:43:00] clubs before making any decisions.

[00:43:02] I therefore request that you make known to all the major league clubs my feeling in this matter and advise them of my availability for the 1970 season. Sincerely yours, Curt Flood. Wow. And so began, that's 

[00:43:21] Mat Germain: what. That's leadership mark. It is leader leadership. Talking about that lead by example. That's, that's leadership.

[00:43:29] Mark Corbett: It is leadership. And I, I know I've said this before because I, he's kind of a hero for me, you know, outside of the game what he, what he did, because there's so many other people who. Who benefited from that work And I've, we talked about this before. I said when Gerrit Cole signed his contract with the Yankees, he gave a tip of the hat, the Curt Flood.

[00:43:46] 'cause he knew that if there wasn't a Curt Flood, there wasn't gonna be a gar co signing, a contract like that as a free agent. And so ball players everywhere. As they advanced in their careers. A lot of that comes from [00:44:00] Curt Flood, Marvin Miller, and there were several others as well. Don't get me wrong, there's several other people that, uh, we should consider and give, , gratitude for.

[00:44:08] I don't know, Matt, it's gonna be interesting. We, we talk at a time and again about what negotiations are gonna be. With Major League baseball. And, uh, that's, to me right now, I'm not gonna get into particulars, but it seems like there's a bit of mud sEflinging going on back and forth, and we'll get in maybe some of that in the future.

[00:44:28] I just wanna say Merry Christmas to, to the fans and Curt Flood's family and, uh, all that he did. Do you have anything, any notes you wanna make sure we cover today? 

[00:44:40] Mat Germain: Um, I think on, on that same tone, like. The pressure's gonna come, right? Because there's gonna be accusations made. Uh, if right now, when I look at a lot of free agents, I'm like, well, where do they fit for the money they are looking for?

[00:44:55] And, and there's so many players that are high end that really [00:45:00] don't fit with very many teams. Yeah. And those teams are probably saying, you know what? I've got a young guy I would rather slot in, so. There's this tedious, , and it's part of , the animosity that Major League Baseball has built into the process of the CBA that's going to result in this.

[00:45:18] But I think there's gonna be finger pointing when so many free agents are still not signed. And like you stated before. Spring training's coming a little bit earlier this year 'cause of the WBC and they're not gonna be signed by the time spring training opens. Yeah. And they're going to be saying it's because of the CBA renewal and yada, yada yada.

[00:45:37] Then there's gonna be all kinds of accusations taking place. I hope I'm wrong. I hope that they sign most of them beforehand and that it ends up being a lot more, uh, you know, amicable. But, um, you know, all that to say that these guys are, are, are getting an opportunity that wasn't always a, a, you know, a guarantee and, and they should appreciate the process and, uh, [00:46:00] and kind of be mature about making sure it retain it, it remains as, uh, beneficial as possible.

[00:46:07] For all sides involved. Uh, basically, and, and if you come at it from that angle, I think it's gonna be a lot better outcome overall. Um. The, the whole cap thing we're not gonna get into today, but the, the amount of money being thrown around is still extremely healthy. People are still talking $400 million for Kyle Tucker, they're still talking, 300 million for Bo Bichette.

[00:46:30] Like, so I don't think the players have much to stand on when it comes to saying, our players are not getting enough. We saw Dylan Cease sign for an incredible deal with the Blue Jays. . The money is being spent. It's just, you know, it's ML BPA is going to try to use the angles that they have, you know, to try to benefit their cause.

[00:46:49] And that makes a lot of sense. 

[00:46:51] Mark Corbett: Well, you have to think, pardon me. Well, you have to think of the Major League Baseball Players Association, much as if they're Scott Boras. They're there to negotiate for their [00:47:00] players the best deal they can. And I don't know what that's gonna be. And wake up, we could talk about this further in the future right now.

[00:47:06] We'll, uh, we, we know there's something going on where there's gonna be conversations going on between now and spring training, as you pointed out. I'm just, I, that's my big one I'm gonna take away from today is looking for a Ketel Marte to be a ray. So, that's my, my big joy from, uh, this conversation today, my.

[00:47:25] Mat Germain: Absolutely Mark. If, if Ketel Marte, uh, ends up getting treated to the race, we can have another podcast and we can review it and pat ourselves in the back that we help make it happen. 

[00:47:38] Mark Corbett: All right, Matt. Well, thanks again Buddy, for getting here on this little special show here, talking about all the excitement going on with the Rays up edition of Baseball Biz on Deck.

[00:47:48] I wanna thank you all, all, everybody out there and enjoy your Christmas, Hanukkah, uh, new Year's, maybe a little late for Hanukkah at this point, but whatever. Oh, and don't forget Festivus, happy Festivus, [00:48:00] 

[00:48:00] Mat Germain: or the rest of us. 

[00:48:03] Mark Corbett: There we go, brother. Okay. Thank you all again for joining us here today on Baseball Biz On Deck, and we look forward to talking with you again real soon.